After the Deluge: report delves into Japan crisis

Concentrating on the highly dangerous situation at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant No 1, the rapid response report contains an in-depth analysis of the damage to the six nuclear reactors and looks at the lessons that can be learned in Japan and worldwide about balancing the benefits and risks of nuclear power.

The full 74-page report, After the Deluge: Short and Medium-term Impacts of the Reactor Damage Caused by the Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, including an Executive Summary, have been made available online.

Professor Peter Hayes, from RMIT's School of Global Studies, Social Science and Planning, and Dr Richard Tanter, Senior Research Associate at the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, worked with a team of researchers from Australia, Japan, the United States, China and South Korea on the special report.

Professor Hayes, who is Professor of International Relations at RMIT, said the report analysed the huge challenge posed by the virtual destruction of the Fukushima 1 reactor complex by earthquake, fire, explosions and radiological contamination.

"We found that site stabilisation and recovery of the damaged and contaminated sites will take years, possibly as long as a decade, and will cost far more than constructing the plants," he said.

"But the stabilisation and recovery effort is likely to require an international mobilisation of hardware, equipment and trained personnel, and may need a United Nations Security Council mandate to establish authority and funding management for the clean-up."

The report raises important questions including:

• What connections does Australia have to the unfolding nuclear crisis at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant No 1?
• What is the worst-case scenario for the current nuclear crisis in Japan and what are the chances of it happening?
• What challenges does the nuclear crisis in Japan present for other countries?
• What lessons are there to be learned about balancing the benefits and risks of nuclear power?

Professor Hayes said the report would be updated regularly as the highly volatile situation developed and more information became available.

"At this stage, it is not possible to rule out a worst-case scenario: a dispersal into the atmosphere of radioactive particles by either uncontrolled burning of spent nuclear fuel or a powerful explosion of highly radioactive steam and radioactive melted fuel rod material from a rupture in a reactor containment building," he said.

"On the assumption that such a worst-case outcome can be avoided, our report concludes with a discussion of how the reactors and spent fuel repositories can be dealt with.

"This will certainly be a highly difficult operation over a long period, and will require a high-level of international cooperation."

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